The Opposition Report II — MD28 vs Forward Madison FC
Fort Wayne Football Club hosts playoff-bound Forward Madison at Ruoff Mortgage Stadium, where the first goal could decide the match and our hold on eighth place.
Saturday, October 3 | 7:30 PM ET | Ruoff Mortgage Stadium, Fort Wayne, IN | ESPN+
Prior Proceedings
All-Time vs Forward Madison FC (W-L-D): 0-0-1
The Opposition Report
MD12 Recap & Analysis
When we first met at Madison’s Breese Stevens Field on June 17, in the first nationally televised match in our club’s history, Madison lost head coach Matt Glaeser to a red card in the 15th min. The home side went ahead in the 28th when Joshua Bolma, Madison’s Ghanaian midfielder, finished a low cross from striker Ryan Carmichael. Javier Armas came off the bench in his return from injury, and his curling ball into the box found Ryan Becher at the back post for the equalizer in the 60th min. Madison created the better chances on the night, but we left with a 1-1 draw, and we were the first visiting team in league play this season to take a point from Breese Stevens.
Madison went on a run after that night, winning its next five home matches. On September 19 it clinched a playoff place, and on the same night Carmichael broke Derek Gebhard’s club record for goals in a single league season. Gebhard, the longest-tenured player and all-time leading scorer in Madison history, was the centerpiece of our first Opposition Report, but has not scored since June. Carmichael is the one to watch heading into Saturday’s match.
Madison added four players over the summer, all depth pieces, none who have drastically changed how this team looks. Midfielder Kage Romanshyn Jr. was recalled by Minnesota United FC 2, the reserve side of the MLS club. The bigger change is the absence of Hakim Karamoko, the striker on loan from D.C. United who gave Madison a burst of goals over the summer. He was missing from the squad against Spokane last week.
Madison’s current form includes two losses in its last three, at Chattanooga and then at home to Spokane, a result that ended its unbeaten run in league play at Breese Stevens. In its last 5 matches, Madison has only generated 6 goals, but has allowed the fewest goals across all teams in that span, just 3 goals against. Recently, these have been low-scoring, defensive affairs.
The Matchup II
Madison’s most dangerous pattern runs from central midfielder Roman Torres to Carmichael. Torres has set up more Madison goals than anyone, and Carmichael has been on the end of many of them, either in behind the defense on the break or from a Torres set piece. Carmichael also creates. He drags defenders toward him and finds whoever they left, which is how Bolma scored against us in June.
I would put JP Jordan or Emerson Nieto on Torres, close enough to take away the ball over the top before he can look up. When Carmichael drifts to the right, he becomes the job of our left back, Michael Rempel or Aleksandar Vuković, and the handoff from center back James Musa has to be clean, because much of his damage comes from running in behind on the break. Follow Carmichael, but do not let him pull a second defender with him.
The first goal scored will likely decide this match. Madison has rarely given back a lead this season, and when it has fallen behind first, it has only come back once to win. On the other side, Fort Wayne FC has not won a single league match this season after conceding first. At the rate we are giving up points from winning positions, it might be best to keep this match at 0-0 into the dying minutes and let our subs find the lone goal. The data on this match says: do not concede first.
Set pieces, meaning corners, free kicks and other restarts, are their own battle. Madison has scored more from set pieces than any team in League One, and we sit just behind. Madison also fouls at one of the highest rates in the league, so free kicks around the box will come, and we have to take advantage of them in the attack. The other half is defending them. Carmichael can beat a goalkeeper directly from free kicks outside the box, and Torres can put them on Carmichael’s head too.
The standings determine the storyline. We sit eighth, the last playoff spot, two points clear of Corpus Christi, who kick off at Chattanooga on Saturday 90 minutes before we do, so their result will come in during our first half. Fans at The Ru will be checking their phones, scoreboard watching. A Fort Wayne loss and a Corpus win drops us below the playoff line. A draw and a Corpus win leaves us level on points, still ahead on goal difference, the tiebreaker that would decide it, heading into the October 7 trip to Corpus Christi. We play for three points, as always, and a draw is a result we can carry to Texas. Avoid a loss: that is the most damaging result.
Always FWD